穆迪：全球需求有望在一年内恢复到疫情前水平

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网10月10日新德里报道，信用评级机构穆迪（Moody's）已将中期油价区间提高至每桶50-70美元，这是疫情前的区间，以反映人们的预期，即边际每桶石油的全部平均生产成本将随着需求的持续复苏而不断上升。

　　美国能源情报署(EIA)最近上调了对全球需求增长的估计，目前预计，在2021年强劲复苏至9700万桶/天之后，到2022年底，石油需求将略微超过疫情前的1.01亿桶/天水平。

　　国际能源署（IEA）和欧佩克（OPEC）的最新预测也预计，石油需求将在2022年几乎完全恢复到疫情前的水平。

　　穆迪表示，这一价格区间反映了其对石油生产商进行有利可图的再投资所必需的油价水平的看法。由于石油生产商在产生收入的同时会耗尽其现有储量，因此石油价格必须在中期内支持该行业的再投资，以维持其不断消耗的资源，支持现有的生产水平和增长。

　　该机构在一份报告中表示，截至2021年9月，需求持续复苏、成本上升和库存水平下降将继续支撑油价的强劲势头。我们预计，欧佩克+产油国将在2022年继续减少产量削减，到2022年底实现适度的供大于求，从2021年的持续短缺转变。

　　穆迪在2020年5月将其中期油价预期下调了5美元/桶，由于需求快速下降，生产和开发成本大幅下降。当时其预计，石油行业将需要推迟开发成本较高的储量，直到需求完全恢复。

　　但2021年第三季度全球石油需求加速复苏，推动油价升至每桶70- 80美元区间。石油生产商在2020-21年实现了显著的成本节约，但随着石油需求和更广泛的经济复苏，生产成本开始上升。

　　穆迪认为，在长期投资低成本和棕地资产后，该行业还需要更多地依靠开发高成本的绿地资产来满足中期需求。

　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下：

　　Global oil demand seen returning to pre-pandemic levels within a year: Moody's

　　Credit rating agency Moody's has increased its medium-term oil price range to $50-$70 per barrel — the range it had before the coronavirus pandemic — to reflect the expectation that the full average cost of production of a marginal barrel of oil will keep increasing in step with a continued recovery in demand.

　　The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently raised its estimates of growth in global demand, and now expects that oil demand will marginally exceed the pre-pandemic level of 101 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2022, after a strong recovery to 97 million bpd in 2021.

　　Updated expectations from the International Energy Agency and OPEC also anticipate that oil demand will almost fully recover to its pre-pandemic level in 2022.

　　Moody's said the price range reflects its view of the level of oil prices necessary for producers to reinvest profitably. Since oil producers deplete their existing reserves as they generate earnings, oil prices must support reinvestment over the medium term for the industry to maintain its ever-depleting resources and support existing levels of production, as well as growth.

　　"The ongoing recovery in demand, rising costs and reduced levels of inventory as of September 2021 will continue to support strong momentum in oil prices. We expect that the OPEC-plus producing nations will continue winding down their production cuts in 2022, achieving a modest surplus of supply over demand by the end of 2022, shifting from a sustained deficit in 2021," the agency said in a report.

　　Moody's had in May 2020 reduced its medium-term oil price expectations by $5 per barrel amid a sharp drop in production and development costs based on a rapid decline in demand. It had then expected that the oil industry would need to postpone its development of higher-cost reserves until demand had fully recovered.

　　But an accelerated recovery in global oil demand in the third quarter of 2021 propelled oil prices into the $70-$80 per barrel range. Oil producers achieved significant cost savings in 2020-21, but production costs started to rise in step with oil demand and a broader economic recovery.

　　According to Moody's the industry will also need to rely more on developing higher-cost greenfield assets to meet medium-term demand, following a prolonged period of investment in lower-cost and brownfield assets that allowed the industry to hold back development costs.