为何每桶80美元油价不会摧毁需求

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网报道，由于全球需求持续复苏，以及创纪录的天然气价格刺激了对发电和供暖用石油产品的更多需求，原油每桶80美元的大关可能不会在未来几个月里成为油价的极限。

　　尽管许多国家对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧仍挥之不去，但随着新冠疫苗接种率的提高和经济强劲复苏，发达经济体的流动性继续缩小与2019年水平的差距。 尽管南亚和东南亚的发展中经济体仍在实施间歇性的局部封锁，但全球石油需求继续增长，并将在几个月内达到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平。

　　因此，2019年不像一些分析师在像2021年上半年预测的那样是全球石油需求达到峰值的一年，当时全球大部分地区都处于封锁状态。

　　此外，天然气和电力价格的飙升推动了整个能源市场价格的上涨，并导致更多的石油产品需求，尤其是在亚洲部分地区。

　　由于全球都在争夺冬季能源供应，美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格10月8日自2014年以来首次突破每桶80美元大关。 10月11日早些时候，亚洲市场原油价格继续上涨，布伦特原油价格突破每桶84美元，WTI报收于每桶82美元。

　　油价的回升不仅是欧洲和亚洲能源供应危机的结果。

　　伍德麦肯兹美洲地区副董事长Ed Crooks指出，尽管疫情仍在肆虐，但全球石油需求继续以健康的速度复苏。

　　Crooks在周五的一篇评论中写道，新冠肺炎疫情仍是影响全球石油市场的一个因素，但“它对世界经济和能源需求的影响正在逐渐消退。

　　与许多其他咨询公司、分析师和石油巨头一样，伍德麦肯兹预计全球需求将在2022年第三季度达到疫情爆发之前的水平，即使各地区的需求增速不均衡。

　　根据伍德麦肯兹的数据，本季度全球石油需求预计将增长至约9900万桶/天，高于第三季度的9700万桶/天，第三季度需求比去年第三季度增长6%。

　　全球石油需求正从夏季德尔塔变异毒株病例数飙升中恢复，速度快于一些观察人士的预期。 其次，欧洲和亚洲天然气和煤炭价格飙升，正迫使全球发电厂更多地采用气油转换，进一步推高了石油需求。

　　许多分析师和石油公司认为，全球石油需求最早将于明年年初恢复到2019年危机前的水平，如果不是更早的话，也要到今年年底。

　　Crooks指出，美国的石油需求正处于复苏的前沿，今夏的成品油需求接近纪录高位，约为2100万桶/天。他补充说：“出行数据显示，尽管新冠病毒德尔塔变种导致美国感染人数激增，但人们仍在开车外出。”

　　疫苗在亚洲发展中经济体的推广可能会缓解该地区间歇性封锁的压力。 伍德麦肯兹的美国下游石油市场负责人丹福斯说，需求复苏速度低于美国的国家有望赶上来。

　　石油和其他能源大宗商品市场趋紧，重新引发人们对油价能涨到多高以及能否达到每桶100美元的猜测，尤其是如果今年冬天北半球气温较往年更冷的话。

　　每桶80美元的油价通常被视为需求崩溃的触发点，但由于全球天然气和煤炭市场吃紧，今年冬天对需求造成破坏的价格点可能更高。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Why $80 Oil Won't Destroy Demand

　　The $80 per barrel threshold may not be the limit for oil prices in the coming months as global demand recovery continues and record natural gas prices spur more demand for oil products for power generation and heating.

　　Despite the still lingering concerns over the Delta variant in many countries, mobility in developed economies continues to narrow the gap with 2019 levels amid higher vaccination rates and strong economic recovery. Although developing economies in South and Southeast Asia are still imposing intermittent localized lockdowns, oil demand globally continues to grow and is set to reach pre-pandemic levels within a few months.

　　So, 2019 was not the year of peak oil demand, as some analysts predicted in the first half of 2020 when COVID had most of the world on lockdown.

　　In addition, the skyrocketing natural gas and power prices are boosting the overall energy market rally and are set to result in more oil product demand in a gas-to-oil switch, especially in parts of Asia.

　　On Friday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, broke above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014 as the world scrambles for energy supplies for the winter. Early on Monday, oil continued to rise in Asian trade, with Brent Crude topping $84 and WTI at $82.

　　The rally in prices is not only the result of the energy supply crisis in Europe and Asia.

　　Global oil demand continues to recover at a healthy pace, although the pandemic is still with us, Ed Crooks, Wood Mackenzie’s Vice-Chair, Americas, notes.

　　The pandemic is still a factor on the global oil market, but “its impact on the world economy and on energy demand is fading,” Crooks wrote in a commentary on Friday.

　　WoodMac - like many other consultancies, analysts, and oil majors - expects global demand worldwide, even at its uneven pace across regions, to reach pre-COVID levels by the third quarter of 2022.

　　This quarter, global oil demand is forecast to grow to around 99 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 97 million bpd in the third quarter, when demand rose by 6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.

　　Oil demand globally is recovering from the summer Delta variant spike faster than some observers had expected. Then, soaring prices of natural gas and coal in Europe and Asia are forcing more gas-to-oil switching at power generating units globally, further pushing up demand for oil.

　　Many analysts and oil companies see global oil demand returning to the pre-crisis levels of 2019 as early as the start of next year, if not earlier, by the end of 2021.

　　Oil demand in the United States is at the forefront of recovery, with petroleum product demand over the summer approaching its all-time highs at about 21 million bpd, Wood Mackenzie’s Crooks notes.

　　“Mobility data show that even as the Delta variant of Covid-19 caused a surge in US infections, people kept driving,” he added.

　　The rollout of vaccines in developing economies in Asia will likely ease the pressure for intermittent lockdowns in the region. The countries with slower demand recovery than the U.S. can be expected to catch up, according to Suzanne Danforth, Wood Mackenzie’s Americas markets lead for downstream oil.

　　Tightening oil and other energy commodity markets have rekindled speculation about how high oil prices could go and whether they could reach $100 a barrel, especially if this winter in the northern hemisphere turns out colder than usual.

　　The $80 a barrel threshold is typically seen as the trigger of demand destruction, but with tight natural gas and coal markets globally, this winter’s demand-destruction price point could be higher.