机构预测：油价或将飙至每桶100美元以上

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据10月8日RT报道，气象学家预测，今年冬天将特别寒冷，油价可能会升至2014年以来的最高水平。

　　在欧佩克+表示将不会增加超过最初商定的每月40万桶的增产后，油价飙升至多年来的最高水平。银行分析师预测，今年年底前油价可能会走高，这也在预料之中。现在，一些分析人士预计，油价将进一步攀升至每桶100美元。好消息是，即使这种情况发生了，也不会持续很久。高盛(Goldman Sachs)最近更新了最后一个季度的油价预测，称布伦特原油价格将在12月底前将达到每桶90美元。在此之前，该银行表示，如果冬季更冷，石油需求可能猛增90万桶/日。

　　该银行大宗商品分析师表示，“虽然我们一直在看涨石油,因为当前全球供应缺口比我们原先想的要大。在德尔塔病毒影响下的全球需求复苏情况要大大好于我们的预期,而全球供应远低于我们的普遍共识”。

　　随后，美国银行(Bank of America)表示，由于目前能源危机已蔓延至全球，油价可能达到每桶100美元。美国能源部长詹妮弗?格兰霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)本周表示，能源部可能从国家紧急储备中释放石油，以降低汽油价格。该银行接着警告称，这可能会使全球经济复苏严重受挫。

　　美国银行指出，创纪录的天然气价格迫使一些公用事业公司转向石油衍生品，推高了对原油的需求。与高盛一样，该行还指出，寒冷的冬季可能是看涨石油的另一个重要影响因素。

　　美国银行分析师在一份报告中写道，“如果所有这些因素结合在一起，油价可能会飙升，导致全球出现第二轮通胀压力。换句话说，我们距离下一场庞大飓风，可能只差一场风暴”。

　　然而，JTD能源服务公司首席策略师约翰·德里斯科尔（John Driscoll）表示，即使布伦特原油价格达到每桶100美元，也不太可能长期保持在这一水平。基准指数要达到这个价格水平需要很多因素支撑。

　　他表示，“我认为这是一种概率较低的情况。也就是说，如果一切都出了问题，比如我们遇到极其寒冷的天气，我们的交付能力和供应链出现了故障。但这些是一种可能的情况，而我认为这种情况不太可能持续发生”。

　　看来这一切都要看天气了。所有的预测者都提到寒冷的冬天是影响所有能源价格的一个关键因素，而且似乎所有人都在期待它的到来。

　　德里斯科尔表示，“你可以看到一个破纪录的峰值，我真的没有听到任何人谈论即将到来的冬天是温和的。我认为，考虑到天气和气候变化的所有不确定性，我们可能会经历一段疯狂的旅程”。

　　然而，在较长一段时间内，天气是不可能准确预测的，事实上，正如彭博社本月初报道的那样，目前气象学家对冬季的预测存在巨大差异。

　　当然，理性的做法是为最坏的可能情况做准备，那就是我们将遇到一个非常寒冷的冬天。事实上，这正是欧洲试图做的，这也成为了油价飙升的一个重要原因。然而，至少在一定程度上，这种飙升是投机而非基本面因素的结果。俄罗斯表示，将向欧洲提供更多的天然气，随后，天然气价格下跌了50美元，这很能说明问题。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 RT

　　原文如下：

　　A cold winter could send oil prices soaring past $100

　　Meteorologists are predicting a particularly cold winter, and it could send oil prices to the highest level since 2014.

　　The spike in oil prices to the highest in years after OPEC+ said it will not add more barrels than the initially agreed 400,000 bpd monthly was expected. The forecasts by bank analysts that oil could go higher before the year is over were also expected. Now, some are expecting a further climb towards $100. The good news is that even if it happens, it won’t last. Goldman Sachs recently updated its oil price forecast for the final quarter, saying it now expected Brent crude to reach $90 per barrel by the end of December. Before that, the bank said oil demand could jump by 900,000 bpd if the winter was colder.

　　“While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts,” the bank’s commodity analysts said in late September.

　　Then Bank of America said oil could hit $100 per barrel because of the energy crunch that has now gone global, with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm saying this week the department could release oil from the country’s emergency reserve to lower gasoline prices. The bank went on to warn that this could make the global economic recovery stumble badly.

　　The bank pointed to the record-high natural gas prices that forced some utilities to switch to oil derivatives instead, boosting demand for crude and, like Goldman, noted the prospect of a cold winter as another bullish factor for oil.

　　“If all these factors come together, oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world,” BofA analysts wrote in a note. “Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.”

　　Yet even if Brent hits $100 per barrel, it is unlikely to stay there for long, according to John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services. And it would take a lot of things to happen for the benchmark to reach this price level.

　　“I see that as kind of a lower probability scenario. That is, if everything goes wrong, if we have Arctic weather, if we’ve got glitches, breakdowns in the deliverability, the supply chains. That is a possible scenario but I don’t see that likely to be sustainable,” Driscoll told CNBC this week.

　　It will all depend on the weather, it seems. All forecasters mention a cold winter as a key factor for all energy prices, and all seem to expect it.

　　“You could see an off-the-charts spike — that is one scenario out there,” Driscoll went on to tell CNBC. “I don’t really hear anybody talking about the prospects of a mild subdued winter. I think, given all the uncertainty over weather and climate change, we could be in for a wild ride here.”

　　Yet the weather is impossible to predict with any accuracy over longer periods of time, and indeed, current forecasts for the winter season differ dramatically among meteorologists, as Bloomberg reported earlier this month.

　　The rational thing to do, of course, is to plan for the worst possible scenario, which would be a very cold winter. Indeed, this was what Europe tried to do and what became one big reason for the gas price spike. Yet some of that spike, at least, was the result of speculation rather than fundamentals. The fact that gas prices dropped by $50 after Russia effectively said the country will supply additional gas to Europe is quite telling.