油价回升 沙特希望主导石油市场

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价10月8日报道，沙特终于从2020年灾难性的一年中恢复过来，其石油收入超过了疫情前水平。

　　沙特未来的一个主要重点是保持其在亚洲石油市场的主导地位。

　　这个石油王国还专注于扩大其中游和下游石油行业，帮助减少对上游石油和天然气的依赖。

　　在经历了疫情期间艰难的一年之后，随着全球石油需求的复苏，沙特及其油气行业终于开始反弹。

　　由于欧佩克+石油供应削减导致全球油价飙升，沙特石油收入超过疫情前水平，石油出口收入达到2018年以来最高水平。随着布伦特原油价格本周达到每桶83.47美元，世界各地的石油生产国都在庆祝。

　　沙特7月份的石油收入达到190亿美元，政府希望这将帮助该国在2022年将预算赤字减少到GDP的1.6%。如果沙特收入能够比原先预计的高出4.5%，这一目标就有可能实现。

　　这一巨大反弹在很大程度上是由于该国在新冠疫情后令人印象深刻的市场重新开放，新冠疫情继续严重打击世界上几个国家。通过开放生产和减少对新冠疫情的限制，沙特已经能够让其石油行业和其他行业重回正轨，而其他许多国家仍在挣扎。

　　随着欧佩克+石油减产持续放缓至2022年，沙特预计2021年平均产量为900万桶/天，2022年为970万桶/天，2023年将超过1000万桶/天，总潜在产能为1200万桶/天。在经历了一年的停滞后，石油需求依然强劲，这种过剩的生产潜力使其有了根据全球需求进行调整的空间。

　　沙特宣布计划增加对中游和下游业务的关注，以在需求保持高位的情况下提高产量，这巩固了其对未来油气生产和出口的立场。

　　标普评级解释称，“当局还将继续努力，重新平衡油气行业，从依赖上游原油生产和出口，转向天然气和增值的中游油气活动，如炼油、石化、化工和矿产。因此，2021-2024年，几个大型油气项目将继续增加产量”。

　　这一转变可能会使沙特日产量超过1200万桶，到2027年达到1300万桶。国有石油公司沙特阿美希望通过加大投资来提高产量，只要需求保持在高水平，然后随着可再生替代能源越来越普遍，需求将不可避免地下降。

　　为了确保沙特在国际石油市场上的地位，沙特正集中精力维持与其他几个亚洲国家的紧密联系。预计在未来五年内，亚洲的石油需求将占到全球石油需求的90%。

　　为了维持其在亚洲的地位，沙特在10月份下调了对亚洲所有进口商的原油价格，而对欧洲西北部和美国的出口价格保持不变。沙特将阿拉伯轻质原油价格每桶下调1.30美元，创下去年单月最大降幅，震惊了原本预计会下调油价的市场。

　　沙特向印度和其他亚洲国家供应石油，不仅是对当前市场需求的回应，也是一项长期计划，以在未来几年维持其全球最大产油国的地位。

　　由于沙特石油和天然气市场看起来与以往一样强劲，沙特阿美正在制定战略，以确保其保持这种势头。在其他国家减少石油投资之际，沙特提高了本国的生产潜力，巩固了与亚洲市场的联系。沙特预计，亚洲市场将主导全球石油需求。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　Saudi Arabia Eyes Oil Market Dominance As Prices Bounce Back

　　Saudi Arabia is finally recovering from a disastrous year in 2020, with its oil revenues surpassing pre-pandemic levels

　　A major focus for Saudi Arabia going forward is to retain its dominance across Asian oil markets, particularly as the top exporter to China

　　The oil kingdom is also focusing on expanding its midstream and downstream oil sectors, helping to reduce its reliance on upstream oil and gas

　　After a difficult year during Covid, Saudi Arabia and its oil and gas industry are finally rebounding as global oil demand recovers.

　　Oil revenue in Saudi Arabia is surpassing pre-pandemic levels with oil export revenue achieving its highest levels since 2018 thanks to OPEC+ oil supply cuts sending prices soaring worldwide. With the price of Brent hitting $83.47 a barrel this week, oil producers around the world are celebrating.

　　Saudi Arabia’s oil revenue reached $19 billion in July and the government hopes it will help reduce the country’s budget deficit to 1.6 percent of its GDP in 2022. This may be achieved if Saudi Arabia’s revenue can reach levels 4.5 percent higher than originally projected.

　　This huge rebound is largely down to the country’s impressive reopening following the Covid pandemic, which continues to hit several countries around the world hard. By opening up production and decreasing Covid restrictions Saudi Arabia has been able to get its oil sector and other industries back on track, as many other states still struggle.

　　As OPEC+ oil cuts continue to ease into 2022, Saudi Arabia expects to produce an average of 9 million bpd in 2021, 9.7 million bpd in 2022, and over 10 million bpd in 2023, out of a total potential production capacity of 12 million bpd. With oil demand remaining strong, after a year of stagnation, this excess production potential gives it room to manoeuvre depending on global demand.

　　Saudi Arabia has announced plans to increase its focus on midstream and downstream operations as a means of boosting production while demand remains high, solidifying its stance on the ongoing production and export of oil and gas well into the future.

　　Global Ratings explain, “The authorities will also keep on maintaining efforts to rebalance the hydrocarbon industry away from its reliance on upstream crude production and export, toward natural gas and value-added midstream hydrocarbon activities such as refining, petrochemicals, chemicals, and minerals.” Therefore, “Several large hydrocarbon projects will continue to ramp up production in 2021-2024.”

　　This shift could see Saudi Arabia surpass its 12 million bpd production potential to hit 13 million bpd by 2027. State-owned oil company Aramco hopes to drive up production through greater investment in the sector so long as demand remains high before an inevitable waning of demand as renewable alternatives become more widely available.

　　To ensure the country’s position in the international oil market, Saudi Arabia is concentrating on maintaining strong links with other several Asian states, with Asia expected to make up 90 percent of all oil demand within the next five years.

　　To maintain its position within Asia, Saudi Arabia cut prices of all its crude grades to importers across Asia in October compared to September, while leaving export prices to north-western Europe and the U.S. unchanged. Saudi Arabia cut its Arab Light crude prices by $1.30 a barrel, the highest monthly reduction within the last year, shocking a market that expected a lower cut.

　　Saudi Arabia’s oil supply to India, and other Asian states is not merely a response to current market demand but a long-term plan to sustain its position as the largest oil producer in the world for years to come.

　　As Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas market looks as strong as ever, state-owned Aramco is strategizing to ensure it remains this way. By ramping up the country’s production potential at a time when other countries are reducing their oil investments, and solidifying ties with an Asian market that it expects to dominate global oil demand, Saudi Arabia expects to maintain its position for years to come.