随着冬季临近 天然气价格飙升

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据10月8日IHS Markit报道，虽然北半球的冬天还没有开始，但世界各地的天然气现货价格在过去几个月里大幅飙升。欧洲基准TTF价格已从5月份的不到9美元/百万英热上涨至上周的超过33美元/百万英热。与此同时，亚洲基准JKM从5月份的不到7美元/百万英热飙升至逾34美元/百万英热。从那时起，两种价格都在继续上涨，JKM的近月价格超过了42美元/百万英热，而截至10月5日，11月TTF期货价格达到了40美元/百万英热。为了让更多“以石油为中心”的读者了解这些数据，以石油当量计算，当前TTF价格约为230美元/桶，而JKM价格超过240美元/桶。与此同时，布伦特原油目前的价格约为81美元/桶。

　　是什么导致了天然气价格的持续飙升?与大多数大宗商品价格飙升一样，这最终是一个供求问题。在2020年短暂下降之后，全球天然气需求今年实际上已经完全恢复。这种需求增长在一定程度上只是疫情爆发前几十年就存在的趋势延续。但它也反映了其他几个更为特殊因素的聚合。例如，巴西长期干旱迫使该国从水力发电转向天然气发电。与此同时，全球煤炭市场正面临严重的供应约束，导致煤炭价格大幅上涨。这进而转化为更多的天然气需求，因为这两种大宗商品在电力行业往往可以互换。与此同时，由于2020-2021年的冬季异常严峻，欧洲天然气库存非常低，这就需要在2021-2022年冬季即将到来之前建立非典型库存。

　　在供应方面，包括埃及、挪威、特立尼达、秘鲁、尼日利亚和安哥拉在内的几个主要液化天然气供应国正遭受产量下降的影响。在欧洲，供应受到了间接影响，即其他全球市场日益增长的需求正在消耗液化天然气。更直接的影响是，英国在初夏期间生产商维修过度，导致产量同比大幅下降。

　　目前天然气的高价格环境还影响着石油价值链。如上所述，石油价格以及成品油价格，目前远低于天然气价格。这将激励天然气消费者在仍有选择的地方转向石油替代品。最值得注意的是，这意味着发电厂将从天然气(或液化天然气)转向石油衍生品，主要是燃料油，但也可能有一些汽油和石脑油。不过，IHS Markit认为，这种互换将主要发生在亚洲市场。在欧洲或北美，出于环境考虑，将限制发电厂用石油衍生品替代天然气。

　　另一个从天然气到石油转换的潜在途径是在炼油厂内部。通常，而且越来越多的炼油厂利用天然气作为燃料来源。但炼油厂也有能力利用液化石油气代替天然气。与能源行业的燃料油一样，IHS Markit认为，这种交换在亚洲是最可行的。在欧洲和美洲，也有可能进行小规模的转换。

　　油气转换的最后一个途径是运输部门。这包括公路运输和海船。然而，这种交换的总体范围被认为是相对有限的。很少有船舶可以选择使用液化天然气或燃料油。

　　总体而言，IHS Markit认为，考虑到所有可能的油气转换途径，今年冬季石油需求的“上行”潜力约为62.5万桶/日。其中约一半来自发电行业的燃料油需求增加，其余大部分来自炼油和石化行业的液化石油气需求增加。石脑油和汽油的增量也非常有限。对于所有产品而言，预期的大部分互换将发生在亚洲市场。

　　这种需求的上升是否足以改变石油市场的走势?也许。石油行业已经被对即将到来的供应危机的担忧所困扰。事实上，油价在过去六周一直呈上升趋势，自9月中旬以来涨幅尤为强劲。天然气转换可能带来的石油需求增量，在全球石油需求总量中仍只是沧海一粟。需要强调的是，这种说法已经包含了天然气转换为原油需求的最大额度。但全球原油供需平衡比许多人意识到的要紧张，市场目前非常焦虑。今年冬天原油库存下降速度快于预期，很容易将油价推高至90美元/桶的区间。

　　这一分析的更大含义是，目前天然气价格飙升的“安全阀”非常少。对于天然气消费者来说，迅速转向足够数量的替代燃料以缓解供应紧张是不太可行的。事实上，这正是过去一个月天然气价格与石油价格差距如此之大的原因。

　　奇怪的是，今年冬天全球能源市场，尤其是天然气市场的走势将真正取决于天气。一个相对温和的冬季将缓解石油和天然气市场的紧张。而一个特别寒冷的冬天将使天然气价格比现在更高。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 IHS Markit

　　原文如下：

　　Natural gas prices soar as winter approaches: can the oil sector offer a relief valve?

　　Although the Northern Hemisphere's winter has yet to begin, natural gas spot prices around the world have absolutely skyrocketed over the past few months. The price of European benchmark TTF has moved from less than $9/MMbtu in May to over $33/MMbtu last week. Asian benchmark JKM, meanwhile, surged from less than $7/MMbtu in May to more than $34/MMbtu. Both prices have only continued in rise since then, with front month pricing for JKM surpassing $42/MMbtu and November futures for TTF reaching $40/MMbtu as of 5 October. (To put these numbers in context for more "oil-centric" readers, the current TTF price works out to around $230/b on an oil equivalent basis, with the JKM price equivalent to more than $240/b. The price of Brent, meanwhile, is today around $81/b.)

　　What has caused this still-ongoing surge in natural gas prices? As with most commodity price surges, it is ultimately an issue of supply and demand. After a brief dip in 2020, global gas demand has effectively already fully recovered this year. This demand growth is partly just the continuation of trends that had been underway for decades before the pandemic. But it also reflects the confluence of several other more ad hoc factors. For example, prolonged drought conditions in Brazil have obliged that country to shift from hydro to natural gas for power generation. At the same time, the global coal market is facing significant supply side constraints, causing prices for that commodity to rise sharply. This, in turn, translates to more natural gas demand since the two commodities are often interchangeable in the power sector. Meanwhile, European natural gas stocks are extremely low thanks to an atypically severe 2020-2021 winter, which necessitates atypical stock building ahead of the imminent 2021-2022 winter.

　　On the supply side, several key LNG suppliers are suffering from reduced output, including Egypt, Norway, Trinidad, Peru, Nigeria and Angola—to name just some of the major contributors. In Europe, supply has been impacted both indirectly—by LNG being drawn away by growing demand in other global markets—and more directly by a major year-on-year drop in UK production as maintenance overran during early summer.

　　The ongoing high price environment for natural gas is not occurring in a vacuum; it is also impacting the oil value chain. As noted, oil prices—and thus refined product prices—are currently far lower than are those for natural gas. This is incentivizing consumers of natural gas to switch to oil alternatives where the option still exists. Most notably, this means power plants switching from natural gas (or LNG) to oil derivatives—principally fuel oil but also potentially some gasoil and naphtha. That said, IHS Markit believes that such swapping will occur primarily in Asian markets. In Europe or North America, environmental considerations will limit power plants swapping out natural gas for oil derivatives.

　　Another potential avenue for gas-to-oil switching is within refineries themselves. Typically—and increasingly—refineries utilize natural gas as a fuel source. But refineries also have the ability to utilize LPG in lieu of natural gas. As with fuel oil in the power sector, IHS Markit believes such swapping is most feasible in Asia. Smaller volumes of switching are also possible in Europe and the Americas.

　　A final avenue for gas-to-oil switching is from the transportation sector. This includes both road transport and marine-going vessels. However, the overall scope for such swapping is deemed to be relatively limited. Few marine vessels have the optionality to run either LNG or fuel oil.

　　O verall, when all possible avenues of gas-to-oil switching are considered, IHS Markit believes there is around 625,000 b/d of potential "upside" to oil demand this winter. Around half of that would be incremental fuel oil demand from the power gen sector, with most of the remainder being additional LPG demand from the refining and petrochemical sector. Very limited incremental volumes of naphtha and gasoil could be utilized as well. For all products, most of the anticipated swapping would occur within Asian markets.

　　Is this demand upside enough to move the needle within oil markets? Perhaps. The oil sector is already beset by concerns about a looming supply crunch. Indeed, oil prices have trended upward over the past six weeks, with a particularly strong increase occurring since mid-September. The incremental oil demand volume that could arise from natural gas swapping is still a drop in the bucket of overall world oil demand. And it should be emphasized that this estimate is in many ways the maximum potential volume that could be swapped. But the global crude balance is tighter than many realize, and market anxiety is high at the moment. Faster-than-expected crude stock drawdowns this winter could easily send prices up into the $90/b range.

　　The bigger implication of this analysis is that there are very few "relief valves" for the ongoing natural gas price surge. It is simply not very feasible for consumers of natural gas to swiftly pivot to alternative fuels in sufficient quantity to blunt the supply crunch. Indeed, this is exactly why natural gas prices have separated so dramatically from oil prices over the past month.

　　Oddly enough, the state of play for global energy markets—particularly natural gas markets—this winter will truly depend on the weather. A relatively mild winter will ease tightness in both oil and gas markets. While a particularly frigid winter will send prices soaring even higher than they already are.