因经济低迷巴西努力扩大国内天然气市场

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据《石油世界期刊》10月12日里约热内卢报道，巴西希望开发大型天然气消费国，以稳定其即将开放的天然气市场，但这一努力受到市场开放进程和经济增长缓慢等问题的挑战。

　　巴西的天然气需求严重依赖工业消费，该国近一半的需求来自工业，因为该国用于取暖的天然气有限。但巴西矿业和能源部表示，工业天然气需求充其量也一直停滞不前，从2011-2018年的4000万至4300万立方米/天不等，到2019年下降到3700万立方米/天，到新冠疫情期间的3600万立方米/天。工业用户在整体经济中所占比例也有所下降，从1985年占GDP的48%下降到2019年的21%。

　　大型能源和天然气消费者寄予厚望，该国于 1 月 1 日开放的天然气市场将加剧供应竞争并最终降低价格，从而增加天然气需求。但根据巴西全国工业联合会(CNI)最近的一项研究，建立监管和发展市场流动性可能需要一些时间。在新市场的第一阶段，随着巴西石油公司从垄断供应商的地位下降，价格实际上可能会上涨。

　　OfSeas咨询公司分析师安东尼奥·苏扎（Antonio Souza）表示，由于该国的高成本，需要相关数量天然气的行业，甚至可能转向天然气的行业，现在还没有转。

　　考虑到巴西相对不温不火的经济增长率，让大型能源消费商转变能源使用方式就更加困难了。根据巴西地理与统计研究所（institute of geography and statistics IBGE）的数据，截至9月30日的12个月内，巴西国内生产总值增长了1.8%，低于国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测的发展中经济体平均6.3%，或世界银行预测的5.2%。在此之前，2018年和2019年的增速分别为1.8%和1.1%，落后于其他类似发展水平的国家。

　　大量国内天然气

　　巴西工业可利用的国内天然气并不短缺。巴西拥有大型气田，如由Equinor在里约热内卢州近海的盐前坎波斯盆地运营的P?de A?car气田，预计到2026年底，该气田的日产量将达到1600万立方米。EPE估计，到2030年，巴西天然气日产量将达到1.47亿立方米，高于8月份的5500万立方米。

　　但到2027年，该国将需要扩大现有海上1号和2号天然气管道的容量，即使3号管道将在2022年投入使用。除非有大客户愿意为这一产能签订长期合同，否则不会进行重大管道扩建。

　　一位了解油气生产行业的消息人士告诉Argus称，巴西天然气市场仍然很小。可能很难为这么多天然气找到买家。在巴西寻找主要消费者是一件复杂的事情，天然气生产商依赖的消费者几乎没有增长和稳定的消费。

　　燃气热发电机是巴西第二大天然气消费群体，被视为另一个主要的长期客户。巴西电力市场大多处于垄断状态，85%的消费者与当地配电公司挂钩，这些公司通过受监管的政府拍卖获得电力。

　　但巴西对火力发电的需求波动很大。水电是主要能源，装机容量为62%，风能和太阳能的价格正在下降。鉴于巴西电网的互联性，除了目前运营的沿海市场之外，其他州不太可能建设新的燃气发电厂。

　　以流通企业协会(Abegás)为中心，公共汽车和卡车市场也有可能成为天然气市场。Abegás战略和市场总监Marcelo Mendon?a表示，部分柴油卡车市场可能会被天然气卡车取代，潜在消费量为3000万立方米/天。他表示，沼气也可以满足这一需求，为买家提供绿色选择。

　　根据米纳斯吉拉斯州天然气经销商Gasmig的数据，天然气是重型车辆最便宜的燃料选择，成本为0.32兰特/公里，而乙醇和汽油的成本分别为0.65兰特/公里和0.63兰特/公里。

　　巴西能源研究办公室（Energy Research Office）将于12月发布一项研究，重点是找到这些主要消费者。

　　郝芬 译自 《能源世界网》

　　原文如下：

　　Brazil struggles expanding gas market of domestic consumers amid downturn

　　Brazil wants to develop large natural gas consumers to anchor its soon-to-be liberalized gas market, but the effort is challenged by questions about the market-opening process and slow economic growth.

　　Natural gas demand in Brazil is heavily dependent on industrial consumption, with almost half of the country's demand coming from industry, as gas for heating is limited in the country. But industrial natural gas demand has been stagnant at best, ranging between about 40mn-43mn m3/d from 2011-2018 before falling to 37mn m3/d in 2019 and then to 36mn last year during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy. Industrial users have also become a smaller part of the overall economy, dropping from 48pc of GDP in 1985 to 21pc in 2019.

　　Large energy and gas consumers have high hopes that the country's natural gas market opening on 1 January will increase competition for supply and eventually lower prices, increasing gas demand. But it may take some time to establish regulations and develop market liquidity, according to a recent Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) study. Prices may actually increase at the first stages of the new market as Petrobras' role shrinks from that of monopoly supplier.

　　"The industries that demand relevant volumes of natural gas and even industries that could shift to gas now are not shifting due to the high costs in the country," said Antonio Souza, an analyst with OfSeas consultancy.

　　Getting large energy users to make the switch is even harder, given Brazil's relatively tepid growth rate. Brazilian GDP grew 1.8pc in the 12 months ending 30 September according to Brazil's institute of geography and statistics IBGE, below the 6.3pc average projected for developing economies by the International Monetary Fund, or the World Bank's Latin America outlook of 5.2pc. This follows a sluggish 1.8pc growth in 2018 and 1.1pc in 2019, lagging behind other countries with similar levels of development.

　　Plenty of domestic gas

　　There is no shortage of domestic natural gas for Brazilian industry to tap. Brazil has large gas fields, such as P?o de A?úcar, operated by Equinor in the pre-salt Campos basin offshore Rio de Janeiro state, which is expected to produce 16mn m3/d by end of 2026. EPE estimates Brazilian gas production will reach 147mn m3/d by 2030, up from 55mn m3/d in August.

　　But by 2027 the country will need expanded pipeline capacity beyond existing gas pipelines Route 1 and 2 from the offshore, even with pipeline Route 3 operational by 2022. Significant pipeline expansions will not be built unless there are large customers willing to sign long term contracts for that capacity.

　　"The Brazilian gas market is still small. It may be difficult to find buyers for this much gas," a source with knowledge of the oil and gas production industry told Argus. "Finding anchor consumers in Brazil is a complicated matter, and gas producers depend on consumers with little ramp-up and steady consumption."

　　Gas-fired thermal generators, the second largest gas consumer group in Brazil, are being considered as another major long term customer. The Brazilian power market is mostly captive, with 85pc of consumers tied to local distribution companies that get their power through regulated government auctions.

　　But demand for thermal power generation in Brazil fluctuates. Hydropower is the dominant source with a 62pc installed capacity, and prices for wind and solar power are dropping. Given the interconnected nature of Brazil's power grid, new gas-fired power plants are unlikely to be built in states other than the coastal markets where they currently operate.

　　The bus and truck market is also being considered as a possible gas market, with distribution company association Abegás leading that effort. Some of the diesel truck market could be replaced by natural gas-fueled trucks, with a potential consumption of 30mn m3/d, Abegás strategy and market director Marcelo Mendon?a said. That demand could also be met by biogas, providing buyers with a green option, he said.

　　Natural gas is the cheapest fuel option for heavy vehicles according to Minas Gerais state gas distributor Gasmig, costing R0.32/km, versus R0.65/km for ethanol and R0.63/km for gasoline.

　　Finding these anchor consumers is the focus of a study by Brazil's Energy Research Office, to-be released in December.