俄：未来几十年油气仍将是全球能源消费主要来源

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网莫斯科报道，俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克10月14日表示，几十年以后，石油和天然气仍将是全球能源消费的主要来源。

这位俄罗斯官员在俄罗斯能源周论坛上表示，石油和天然气目前占全球能源消费结构的85%左右，未来几十年内无法完全替代。

诺瓦克说，石油目前占世界能源消耗的31%左右，“很明显，尽管对天然气和石油的未来有各种各样的预测，但我们在未来几十年里永远不会完全远离碳氢化合物。”

据这名俄罗斯政府主管能源事务的官员称，石油和天然气在世界未来能源消费结构中的份额将从85%下降到65- 70%左右，而不是一些专家所预测的20- 30%。

诺瓦克补充说，俄罗斯对石油和天然气消费量大幅减少的看法比一些预测更为清醒，因为俄罗斯不仅考虑到对新能源的“大肆宣传”，还考虑到能源安全，主要是俄罗斯的能源安全。

俄罗斯对未来全球能源需求和能源结构的看法与沙特石油巨头沙特阿美和欧佩克的看法更为一致，后者认为，即使到2050年，世界仍将需要大量石油和天然气。

欧佩克9月在其《2021年世界石油展望》(WOO)报告中表示，预计到本世纪30年代中期，全球石油需求将继续增长至1.08亿桶/天，之后将在2045年之前保持平稳。

欧佩克认为，在长期需求停滞之前，石油需求在中短期内将“强劲”增长。 据欧佩克估计，除水电和天然气以外的可再生能源将在2035年至2045年期间增长最快，石油需求届时预计将持平， 可再生能源和天然气将继续在不断演变的能源结构中发挥重要作用。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Russia: Oil And Gas Aren't Going Anywhere In The Coming Decades

Decades from now, oil and gas will continue to account for the majority of global energy consumption, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday.

Oil and gas, which currently account for around 85 percent of the global energy mix, cannot be entirely replaced, the Russian official said the Russian Energy Week forum.

Oil currently accounts for around 31 percent of the world’s energy consumption, Novak said, adding that “it is obvious we will never move away entirely from hydrocarbons in the coming decades, despite the various projections of the future of gas and oil.”

According to the Russian official, the share of oil and gas in the world’s energy mix is set to drop from 85 percent to around 65-70 percent, not to 20-30 percent as some experts have forecast.

Russia has a more sobering view than some of the estimates of major reductions in oil and gas consumption because it thinks not only about the “hype” about new energy sources, but also about energy security, primarily Russia’s energy security, Novak added.

Russia’s view about the future of global energy demand and energy mix is more aligned to the outlooks of Saudi oil giant Aramco and of OPEC, which say that the world will continue to need a lot of oil and gas, even in 2050.

Global oil demand is expected to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, OPEC said in its 2021 World Oil Outlook (WOO) last month.

OPEC sees oil demand growing “strongly” in the short- and medium-term before demand plateaus in the long term. Renewables other than hydropower and natural gas are set to grow the most between 2035 and 2045, when oil demand is expected to be flat, according to OPEC’s estimates. Renewables and natural gas will continue to play a significant role in the evolving energy mix.