亚洲炼油商利润率已回升至疫情前最高水平

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS-MRC网站10月18日莫斯科报道，根据烃加工信息网站信息显示，分析人士和贸易商表示，由于全球经济复苏和电力短缺推动了对燃料的需求，轻油利润翻了一番，亚洲炼油商的利润率已回升至新冠疫情爆发前的最高水平。

　　随着发电商寻找创纪录的天然气和煤炭的替代品，以及随着各经济体从新冠疫情限制措施中重新开放，工业消费攀升，轻油需求激增。这使得过去一个月轻油的利润率上升了近60%，取代汽油成为炼油厂整体利润的关键组成部分。

　　作为亚洲炼油商盈利能力指标的新加坡综合炼油利润率本月早些时候跃升至每桶7美元以上，为2019年9月以来的最高水平。这一反弹将激励亚洲炼油企业在未来几个月提高产量，不过，预计该地区成品油供应仍将受到限制。

　　花旗银行分析师Oscar Yee在一份报告中表示，我们认为，未来亚洲炼油企业的增长势头将有所改善。该报告调高了该行对韩国SK创新、泰国Star炼油Pcl和IRPC Pcl的展望。

　　FGE咨询公司分析师迪伦·西姆（Dylan Sim）表示，随着被压抑需求的释放，11月和12月的地区汽油消费量可能会增加约10万桶/天，而从现在到12月，由于更多经济活动的恢复，预计汽油需求将增加约20万桶/天。

　　天然气和煤炭价格飙升导致的全球电力短缺，也将促使消费者改用柴油发电，咨询公司雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）预计，未来6个月燃料转换将使亚洲的石油需求平均增加40万桶/天。

　　根据Refinitiv的数据显示，新加坡硫含量为10PPM的基准汽油的炼油利润率处于2019年12月以来的最高水平，而92-辛烷值汽油的利润率在10月攀升了约50%.伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）分析师Daphne Ho表示，我们看到（轻油）价差在接近年底时增加，预计在农业季节需求将进一步加强。他补充道，第四季度对航空燃油和煤油的需求增加将阻止这些燃油被掺入轻油池。

　　此外，新加坡一家轻油贸易商表示，亚洲炼油厂至少需要一两个月的时间来提高产量，因为一些工厂10月份仍在停产维修。该贸易商表示，11月后(轻油)供应可能略好，但(这将被用来)应对地区需求的潜在增加。

　　郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Asian oil refiners margins have rallied back to their highest since before the COVID-19

　　Asian oil refiners' margins have rallied back to their highest since before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, spurred by a doubling of gasoil profits as the global economic recovery and power shortage drive demand for the fuel, analysts and traders said, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

　　Gasoil demand has surged as power generators seek alternatives to record-high natural gas and coal and as industrial consumption has climbed while economies reopen from COVID-19 restrictions. That has pushed the gasoil profit margin nearly 60% higher in the past month, replacing gasoline as the key component of overall refinery profits.

　　The Singapore complex refining margin, a proxy for Asian refiners' profitability, jumped to more than $7 a barrel earlier this month, the highest since September 2019. The rebound will incentivize Asian refiners to boost output in the coming months although regional supplies of refined oil products are expected to stay.

　　"We see improving momentum for Asian refiners ahead, benefiting not just from the near-term gas-to-oil switching this winter," Citi analyst Oscar Yee said in a note, raising the bank's outlook for South Korea's SK Innovation, Thailand's Star Petroleum Refining Pcl and IRPC PCL.

　　The release of pent-up demand could see regional gasoline consumption rising by some 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) over November and December, while gasoil demand is expected to rise by some 200,000 bpd between now and December, underpinned by the resumption of more economic activities, said Dylan Sim, an analyst at consultancy FGE.

　　"Low exports from China will continue to support Asia’s gasoil complex through to the end of 2021," he said. Also, middle distillate inventories across key storage hubs in Asia are at their lowest for this time of the year since 2013 and are now 9.1 MM barrels lower than the 2017-2019 average, Sim said, after refiners cut output because of the recent lower profits.

　　Global power shortages caused by natural gas and coal price spikes will also drive consumers to switch to diesel for power. Consultancy Rystad Energy expects the switch in fuels to boost Asia's oil demand by 400,000 bpd on average over the next six months.

　　Refining profit margins for benchmark gasoil with 10 parts per MM of sulphur in Singapore are at their highest since December 2019, while the margin for 92-octane gasoline has climbed about 50% in October, Refinitiv data showed. We see (gasoil) cracks increasing towards the end of the year, with demand expected to strengthen further over the agricultural season," said Wood Mackenzie analyst Daphne Ho, adding that stronger demand for jet fuel and kerosene in the fourth quarter would prevent these fuels from being blended into the gasoil pool.

　　Also, Asian refiners would need at least a month or two to raise output as some plants are still shut for maintenance in October, a Singapore-based gasoil trader said. "We can have slightly better (gasoil) supply from November, but still (that would be used) to cope with the potential increase in demand regionally,” the trader said.