受燃料强劲需求推动 美国炼油商收益将上升

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工2021年10月18日报道，业内分析师称，尽管原油成本飙升，但美国炼油商第三季获利料将上升，这是因为出售汽油和柴油的利润率有所提高。

　　在经历了一年多时间的燃料需求低迷之后，美国的汽油和馏分油消费量已恢复到5年平均水平。美国是全球最大的燃料消费国。 这使得这些炼油公司的成品油利润率比去年同期增长了一倍以上。

　　根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，包括马拉松石油公司和瓦莱罗能源公司在内的7家美国最大的独立炼油公司预计不日将公布每股平均收益66美分，而去年第三季度为每股亏损1.32美元。

　　这种涨势是由3-2-1裂解价差推动的。裂解价差是炼油利润率的一个代表，它假设一桶原油被提炼成三份汽油、两份柴油和一份航空燃料。 目前这一裂解价差为每桶21美元，而一年前的裂解价差约为9美元。

　　能源需求已从去年新冠肺炎疫情最严重的时期迅速复苏，布伦特原油和美国WTI原油价格近几天达到了多年来的高点。 但产品需求也增加了，这有助于提高炼油利润率。

　　根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的统计数据，最近一周的产品供应(美国成品油需求的代表)为2150万桶/天，略高于2019年新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的同期水平。

　　“市场正在恢复平衡，”瑞士信贷银行分析师Manav Gupta在一份报告中如是说。

　　虽然最近的风暴和疫情导致炼油厂停止原油加工，但美国炼油企业也受益于石油产品库存的下降。 据瑞士信贷银行的Gupta称，自疫情爆发以来，大约有250万桶/天的炼油产能被关闭，这几乎是10年平均水平的4倍。

　　根据上周公布的数据，达美航空公司位于宾夕法尼亚州门罗的炼油厂上季度盈利近1亿美元，这是自去年第一季度以来首次实现积极业绩。 Tudor Pickering Holt的分析师认为，汽油和柴油裂解价差强劲有助于这家炼油厂复苏。

　　航空燃油需求仍低于疫情爆发前的水平，但美国飞往欧洲的国际航班预计将在11月恢复。

　　根据EIA的数据，尽管需求仍低于2018年水平12%，但美国墨西哥湾沿岸煤油型航空燃料的现货价格为每加仑2.10美元，为2018年10月以来的最高水平。

　　由于遵守美国生物燃料法律的成本不断下降，分析师也一直在上调对PBF Energy和HollyFrontier等炼油企业的估值。 炼油厂被要求将乙醇混合到国家的汽油池中，或者为其他有购买能力的人提供产品。

　　这些信贷的成本在第三季度大幅下降。 路透社9月报道称，据分析人士称，预计美国环境保护署将建议今年把联邦生物燃料混合要求降低到去年水平以下。

　　李峻 编译自 烃加工

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. refiners set for higher earnings on fuel demand strength

　　U.S. refiners are expected to show higher earnings for the third quarter as margins to sell gasoline and diesel have improved despite the surging cost of crude oil, analysts said.

　　After more than a year of depressed fuel demand, gasoline and distillate consumption is back in line with five-year averages in the United States, the world's largest fuel consumer. That has boosted margins on refined products to more than double what those companies were making at this time a year ago.

　　The seven largest independent U.S. refining companies, including giants Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy , are projected to post an average earnings-per-share gain of 66 cents, versus a loss of $1.32 for the third quarter of 2020, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

　　Those gains are driven by the 3-2-1 crack spread, a proxy for refining margins, which assumes a barrel of crude oil is refined to three parts gasoline, two parts diesel and one part jet fuel. That spread is currently at $21 per barrel, compared with around $9 a year ago.

　　Energy demand has recovered swiftly from the worst days of the pandemic in 2020, and Brent and U.S. crude oil prices have reached multi-year highs in recent days. But product demand has also increased, and that has helped boost margins.

　　Product supplied - a proxy for U.S. refined product demand - was 21.5 MM barrels per day (bpd) in the most recent week, slightly higher than the same period in 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

　　"The market is getting back in equilibrium," Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta said in a note.

　　Refiners are also benefiting from lower inventories of their products as recent storms and the pandemic knocked refining capacity offline. Approximately 2.5 MMbpd of refining capacity has been shut since the start of the pandemic, which is almost four times the 10-year average, according to Credit Suisse's Gupta.

　　Delta Air Lines' refinery in Monroe, Pennsylvania, earned nearly $100 MM last quarter, its first positive results since the first quarter of 2020, according to figures released last week. Tudor Pickering Holt analysts cited strong gasoline and diesel crack spreads as helping the refiner recover.

　　Jet fuel demand is still below pre-pandemic levels, but international flights are expected to resume to Europe in November. The spot price of U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel is $2.10 dollars per gallon, the highest since October 2018, despite demand still 12% below 2018 levels, per EIA data.

　　Analysts have also been raising estimates for refiners such as PBF Energy and HollyFrontier due to declining costs of complying with the nation's biofuels laws. Refiners are required to blend ethanol into the nation's gasoline pool or buy credits for others who can.

　　The cost of those credits declined sharply in the third quarter. Reuters reported in September that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to recommend reducing federal biofuel blending mandates for 2021 to below 2020 levels, according to analysts.