EIA预计美国天然气价格将在整个冬季保持高位

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油网站10月18日报道 美国能源信息管理署（EIA）在其10月份的《短期能源展望》中预测，10月至3月期间，美国基准亨利中心的天然气现货价格平均将为5.67美元/百万英热单位，为2007-2008年以来的最高冬季价格。最近几个月亨利中心价格的上涨和预测反映了进入冬季取暖季节的储存水平低于平均水平，以及对美国液化天然气的强劲需求，即使美国天然气产量增长相对缓慢。EIA预计，由于产量增长超过液化天然气出口增长，亨利中心价格将在2022年第一季度后下降，今年的平均价格将为4.01美元/百万英热单位。

　　美国液化天然气出口今年创下历史新高，预计明年将继续创下历史新高。EIA预计，今年液化天然气出口量平均达到97亿立方英尺/日（比2020年创纪录的65亿立方英尺/日高出32亿立方英尺/日），并首次超过天然气管道年出口量。液化天然气出口同比增长的同时，美国天然气产量略有增长。预计今年美国干天然气产量平均为926亿立方英尺/日，比2020年增加11亿立方英尺/日，但比2019年减少3亿立方英尺/日。

　　由于美国液化天然气出口增长快于国内天然气生产，库存低于平均水平。截至9月底，EIA估计美国天然气库存总量比五年（2016-2020年）平均水平低5.5%。EIA预测，美国天然气库存将于11月1日开始冬季取暖季节，为35720亿立方英尺，比五年平均水平低4.8%。美国库存减少可能导致天然气价格波动加剧，尤其是如果美国任何地区遭遇严重寒潮，这使得今冬的价格前景非常不确定。

　　在2022年第二季度，EIA预测，随着国内天然气产量的预期增长开始超过美国液化天然气出口的增长，亨利中心天然气价格将下降。2022年，美国的平均产量预计为964亿立方英尺/日，比2021年高出39亿立方英尺/日，在此期间，美国液化天然气出口的增长幅度较小，为14亿立方英尺/日。预测产量的快速增长将给天然气价格带来下行压力。

　　王磊 摘译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　EIA expects U.S. natural gas prices to stay high through the winter

　　WASHINGTON - In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that natural gas spot prices at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $5.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between October and March, the highest winter price since 2007–2008. The increase in Henry Hub prices in recent months and in the forecast reflect below-average storage levels heading into the winter heating season and strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), even after relatively slow growth in U.S. natural gas production. EIA expects Henry Hub prices will decrease after the first quarter of 2022, as production growth outpaces growth in LNG exports, and will average $4.01/MMBtu for the year.

　　U.S. exports of LNG are establishing a record high this year, a new record high anticipated for next year. EIA epects LNG exports to average 9.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year (3.2 Bcf/d more than the 2020 record high of 6.5 Bcf/d) and to exceed annual pipeline exports of natural gas for the first time. The year-on-year increase in LNG exports coincides with slight growth in U.S. natural gas production. U.S. dry natural gas production is expected to average 92.6 Bcf/d this year, which is 1.1 Bcf/d more than in 2020 but 0.3 Bcf/d less than in 2019.

　　Because U.S. LNG exports have grown faster than domestic natural gas production, inventories are lower than average. As of the end of September, EIA estimates that total U.S. natural gas inventories are 5.5% below the five-year (2016–2020) average. EIA forecasts that U.S. inventories of natural gas will begin the winter heating season on November 1 at 3,572 Bcf, or 4.8% below the five-year average. Lower U.S. inventories could contribute to more natural gas price volatility, particularly if any area in the United States experiences a severe cold snap, which makes the price outlook for this winter very uncertain.

　　In the second quarter of 2022, EIA forecasts decreasing Henry Hub natural gas prices as anticipated growth in domestic natural gas production begins to outpace growth in U.S. LNG exports. U.S. production is expected to average 96.4 Bcf/d in 2022, or 3.9 Bcf/d more than in 2021, and U.S. LNG exports to rise by a smaller amount, 1.4 Bcf/d, during this time period. This faster growth in forecast production will put downward pressure on natural gas prices.