油价创7年来新高

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据《能源年》10月15日伦敦报道，周五上午，亚洲市场原油价格上涨，本周收盘涨幅逾2%。随着天然气和煤炭价格不断飙升，促使人们转向石油产品，越来越多的迹象表明，未来几个月供应将出现紧张。

　　截至美国东部时间上午12:26（格林威治时间上午4:26），布伦特原油期货上涨0.74%至84.62美元，WTI期货上涨0.68%至81.86美元。

　　与此同时，根据美国能源情报署(EIA)的原油供应数据显示，截至10月8日当周，原油供应增加608.8万桶。这比Investing网站预测的7.02万桶和上周报告的234.6万桶要多得多。

　　根据美国石油协会(American Petroleum Institute)前一天公布的数据显示，新增量为521.3万桶。

　　然而，经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 的石油库存已大幅下降至自2015年以来的最低水平。随着经济从新冠疫情中复苏的进展，燃料需求正在回升，燃料需求从昂贵的天然气和煤炭转向燃油和柴油为动力，进一步推动了原油的增长。

　　联邦银行（Commonwealth Bank ）大宗商品分析师Vivek Dhar对路透表示，这场能源危机，特别是煤炭和天然气危机，确实推高了能源综合指数，石油因此受益。

　　国际能源署（IEA）周四表示，这场危机可能使石油需求增加50万桶/日，导致到2021年底，石油供应缺口约为70万桶/日。OPEC+预计将在2022年1月增加更多供应。

　　Dhar表示，你看到的是一个很窄的窗口，在这个窗口内，情况可能会相当紧张，但这将非取决于天气。

　　与此同时，据加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的分析师表示，在供应收紧和需求加强的推动下，全球石油市场正在形成一个强劲的牛市周期。

　　RBC分析师MichaelTran在一份报告中表示，我们坚持全年持有的观点，即石油市场仍处于多年结构性强劲周期的初期。

　　郝芬 译自 《能源年》

　　原文如下：

　　Oil at seven-year high

　　Oil was up Friday morning in Asia and was set to end the week with gains of more than 2%. There are increasing signs of tight supply over the next few months as soaring gas and coal prices are encouraging a switch to oil products.

　　Brent oil futures rose 0.74% to $84.62 by 12:26 AM ET (4:26 AM GMT) and WTI futures rose 0.68% to $81.86.

　　Meanwhile, crude oil supply data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a 6.088-million-barrel build for the week ended Oct. 8. This was much bigger than the 702,00-barrel build in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and the 2.346-million-barrel build reported the week before

　　Data from the American Petroleum Institute, released a day earlier, showed a build of 5.213 million barrels.

　　However, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) oil stockpiles have declined sharply to their lowest level since 2015. Fuel demand is picking up as economic recovery from Covid-19 progresses, with a turn away from expensive gas and coal to fuel oil and diesel for power giving the black liquid a further boost.

　　“This energy crisis, particularly in coal and gas, has really pushed up the energy complex higher and oil has benefited as a result,” Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar told Reuters.

　　The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that the crisis could boost oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), resulting in a supply gap of around 700,000 bpd through the end of 2021. The Organization of the Petroleum Countries and allies (OPEC+) is expected to add more supply in January 2022.

　　“You’re looking at a narrow window where things can tighten considerably, but it’s going to be very weather-dependent,” said Dhar.

　　Meanwhile, the global oil market is shaping up for a strong bull cycle, led by supply tightening and demand strengthening at the same time, according to RBC Capital Markets analysts.

　　“We maintain the view that we have held all year, that the oil market remains in the early days of a multi-year, structurally strong cycle,” RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note.