欧洲天然气价格因温和气候原因下跌

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油10月19日消息，由于预期温和多风的天气将缓解欧洲紧张的能源系统，该地区天然气价格下跌。

　　供暖季节开始时的温暖气温势必会抑制需求，推低价格，尽管俄罗斯表示，如果其有争议的北溪2号(Nord Stream 2)管道得不到迅速批准，俄罗斯将不会输送更多天然气。英国和德国的强风也可能促使涡轮机周四的发电量达到创纪录水平，进一步降低对燃气电厂的需求。

　　摩根大通在一份报告中表示:“从11月开始，随着每个月的气温都高于正常水平，全球天然气平衡将略微缓解，帮助平仓近期上涨的大部分。”

　　英国的风力发电量周二升至两周以来的最高水平。英国的风力发电量被认为是能源危机升级的部分原因，因为夏季无风。据英国国家电网公司的数据显示，英国风电占总电力的41%，超过天然气的约三分之一。

　　荷兰近月天然气期货在阿姆斯特丹下跌4.3%，收于每兆瓦时89.93欧元。英国同样下跌4.8%，至225.91便士。碳期货和德国基准电价也出现下跌。

　　周二早些时候，天然气价格短暂上涨，因为俄罗斯表示，希望德国和欧盟批准开始使用其北溪2号管道，以换取增加供应。德国监管机构正在审查俄罗斯的申请，但表示初步决定可能要到明年1月才会做出，之后也必须得到欧盟委员会的批准。

　　对欧洲的液化天然气供应也保持低迷，亚洲占据溢价以吸引可用货物。但SEB集团表示，无论来自俄罗斯的天然气数量如何，欧洲将继续开发液化天然气市场。SEB在一份报告中表示:“我们认为，来自俄罗斯的更多天然气只会稍微缓解紧张情绪。”

　　根据英国国家电网公司的数据，预计周二英国天然气需求将低于五年平均水平。

　　裘寅 编译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　European gas prices fall on forecast for mild, windy weather

　　European natural gas prices fell on expectations that mild and windy weather will provide some relief to the region’s strained energy system.

　　Warm temperatures at the start of the heating season are set to temper demand, pushing prices lower despite signals from Russia that it won’t ship more gas without quick approval of its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Strong winds in the UK and Germany may also prompt record power output from turbines on Thursday, further reducing the need for gas-fired plants.

　　“Starting from November, with each month that is warmer than normal, the global gas balances will ease marginally, helping to unwind a large portion of the recent rally,” JP Morgan Chase & Co. said in a note.

　　UK wind power generation -- blamed in part for the escalating energy crisis when the wind didn’t blow in the summer -- rose to a two-week high on Tuesday. It accounted for as much as 41% of the total electricity mix, above natural gas with about a third, according to National Grid Plc data.

　　Dutch front-month gas futures fell 4.3% to settle at 89.93 euros a megawatt-hour in Amsterdam. The UK equivalent slid 4.8% to 225.91 pence a therm. Carbon futures and benchmark German power prices also declined.

　　Gas prices briefly rose earlier on Tuesday as Russia signaled it wants German and European Union approval to begin using its Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for boosting supplies. German regulators are reviewing Russia’s application but have said an initial decision may come only in January, after which the European Commission must also give the go-ahead.

　　Liquefied natural gas deliveries to Europe also remain muted, with Asia commanding a premium to attract available cargoes. But Europe will continue to tap the LNG market irrespective of volumes from Russia, SEB Group said. “We see that more natgas from Russia would only calm the nerves a bit,” SEB said in a note.

　　UK gas demand is forecast to be below the five-year average on Tuesday, according to National Grid Plc data.